OFFICIAL 2008-2009 Baseball Hot Stove Thread

[bazookaJOE]

the Cubs have a little extra money,

we'll take CC.

but I don't think we can buy our way out of our problems

[mzab24]

A's picked up Matt Holiday for 2 prospects and Huston Street. the Prospects which where picked up in the deal with Arizona last year for Dan Haren where Greg Smith and Carlos Gonzalez.

This was a little surprising to me but in the end makes sense cause Billy Beane is gonna turn Holiday into 2 draft compensation picks

[stax]

Originally Posted by mzab24

A's picked up Matt Holiday for 2 prospects and Huston Street. the Prospects which where picked up in the deal with Arizona last year for Dan Haren where Greg Smith and Carlos Gonzalez.

This was a little surprising to me but in the end makes sense cause Billy Beane is gonna turn Holiday into 2 draft compensation picks

Greg Smith, Huston Street, and Gonzalez.

And also it's not really a certainty he's just doing this for picks. Here he's trading a closer (which if you read Moneyball you know Beane sees trading closers as being like printing money for how overvalued they are) who's on arbitration and the A's wouldn't afford anyways, and two prospects (Beane is good at evaluating prospects) who also didn't show much in their first stint in the majors. He's getting a year of Holliday which can turn into EITHER compensation draft picks (for if the A's contend and keep him or can't trade him) or (far more likely I feel) unloading him to a contender at the deadline for way too high a price of young players. In this way Beane is turning a couple young players he apparently doesn't have huge faith in and a closer he'd lose anyways for either a center-of-the-lineup offensive player (if they contend) or new young players (either through the draft or a deadline trade) that he likes more.

[stax]

FWIW, here's FanGraph's breakdown of Carlos Gonzalez:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...aluating-cargo

On Monday, we looked at Matt Holliday’s potential value to the A’s, and how his acquisition could boost Oakland’s chances for the postseason in 2009. We know the A’s are getting a good player. But what about the Rockies? Is the haul they’re getting for Holliday going to allow them to get back on the winning track?

Let’s start with Carlos Gonzalez, the centerpiece prospect of a major trade for the second time in as many years. Gonzalez is an extremely athletic, left-handed hitting center fielder with power, and that skill set doesn’t grow on trees. It’s those tools that have made him valuable enough to be dealt for both Dan Haren and now Holliday, as it’s pretty easy for scouts to see the potential for an all-star center fielder.

However, the flip side to that coin is that Gonzalez has now had two organizations deal him away in 12 months, and it’s pretty rare to find an elite player who two organizations passed when he was near major league ready. It happens (Jason Bay, Adrian Gonzalez), but it’s rare. So, what might the D’backs and A’s have seen that would lead them to give up on Gonzalez’s upside?

Well, to start, his approach at the plate can only be described as poor. In 316 major league plate appearances, he swung at pitches out of the strike zone 32% of the time and only made contact in 45% of those swings. In other words, he just swung and missed at a lot of pitches that were going to be called balls. Now, there are players who swing at pitches of the strike zone a lot - Vladimir Guerrero is famous for this, swinging at 45% of all balls he sees. However, he makes contact 70% of the time he swings at a pitch out of the strike zone.

In fact, among major league players who swung at balls 30% of the time or more, every single one made contact half the time (okay, Aaron Rowand’s 49.71% is not exactly half, but let’s round up). Most of them made contact 60-70% of the time, showing that they were chasing pitches because they could hit them, not because they didn’t understand the strike zone.

Perhaps it was just nerves, and he’ll adjust as he grows, but in his first taste of major league pitching, Gonzalez showed a minor league approach. That approach is going to significantly limit his offensive upside, and giving him a narrow path to success. Essentially, with that kind of swing-at-anything mentality, his upside is narrowed to something like 2008 Torii Hunter - a .280/.340/.470 guy who combines power and good defense to be a +3 to +3.5 win player.

There’s certainly a lot of value in having a 23-year-old with +3 to +4 win upside, but if that’s his peak, he’s not quite as shiny as he may have appeared previously.

The good news for Rockies fans is that he does appear to be a quality defender - the A’s fans rated him a 74 on the Fan’s Scouting Report, and the +/- rankings had him at +10 plays in only half a season of work, so while the sample is small, it looks like he’ll be an asset with his glove. That might be necessary to keep him in the line-up, however, because the questions about his bat look legitimate.

[mzab24]

K-Rod about to sign a deal with the Mets for $37 million over 3 years with a vesting option for a 4th year (presumably to do with the amount of saves)

[NYTony]

Mets made a ncie move with K-Rod, but they need setup help, and some back end rotation help, too.

Yanks desperately need pitching, with Mussina gone, Pettite possibly gone, and the kids largely ineffective.

I see Burnett or Sabiathia going to the bronx, but not both.

[mzab24]

well looks like CC is on his way to the Bronx early reports say its for 7 years and $160 million.

Now if the Yankees keep this up in signing free agents they are going to continue to have problems down the road cause they will have no room for home grown talent to slot in anywhere. As of right now they should be ok but If the end up signing Burnett or Lowe it could be a problem...

[NYTony]

Just read, mzab, that it seems like a done deal.

I disagree somewhat about them being in trouble with signings. I expect they'll take CC, make a run at Lowe - I think they'll back off Burnett now that they have CC.

Beyond Wang, the rotation is barren. Chamberlain is going to have his innings limited again, so he can't be counted on for a full year in the rotation. Mussina is gone, Pettite may be as well. Clemens is gone. Hughes has been injured and inconsistent, Kennedy has been awful. CC gives them a solid 1-2 punch. Lowe or Burnett can fit nicely into the 3 spot in the rotation, with Chamberlain 4/5, and the last spot filled by Hughes or Kennedy.

[mzab24]

yeah but think about this as well assuming Joba stays healthy thats 1 Wang 2 CC we all know is a horse thats 3 and if they sign Lowe the biggest problem he ever had was blisters and inconsistency so thats 4 meaning only 1 slot for Hughes, Kennedy or whoever else is on the horizon in the minors. It also means that they wont be able to lower the cost of their rotation with younger players.

and its not a done deal til he has signed thats why I stated early reports...

[NYTony]

Yes, but Hughes has had injury problems himself. I know he gets big reviews, and he's done well in flashes, but he's been incosistent. Same with Kennedy.

Also, I don't see Lowe as a long term deal - 2 yrs, maybe option for a 3rd - so, with Joba's innings limited, that's 1 clear spot for this year, plus one other guy who's going to have to eat some of Joba's innings, which gives Hughes/Kennedy - whoever doesn't start this year - time to mature a bit.

I like the idea of young blood in the lineup and roation - see what Jeter, Posada, bernie, etc did from 95-2007 - but with pitchers, young guys have a LOT of growing pains. Remember, Pettite was really the only young starter in a group of vets in the late 90's . . .Cone, Key, Gooden, Kenny Rogers (remember him?) Wells, El Duque, etc.

I like the thought of Wang, CC, Lowe at the top, with Joba and another young guy in the 4 and 5 spots.

[bigdan1110]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_yl...v=ap&type=lgns

J.J. Putz traded to the Mets in a 3 team, 12 players trade !!

Wow, nice 1-2 punch the Mets have now to close games !!

[NYTony]

If Putz is healthy, he and K-Rod could be the best 1-2 since Rivera-Wetteland in 96.

[mzab24]

Originally Posted by NYTony

If Putz is healthy, he and K-Rod could be the best 1-2 since Rivera-Wetteland in 96.

No way in hell they come close to Rivera-Wetteland K-Rod is SO overrated it isnt even funny! Know how many games he pitched more than 1 inning last year? ONE in the playoffs cause they had no choice. Oh and did I mention he blew another save to the Red Sox again for the 2nd postseason in a row? The only good thing K-Rod was great for last year was Fantasy owners

[LHSaloon]

If Putz stays healthy and gets back to his 2007 form he's a more dominant pitcher than K-Rod.

[mzab24]

completely agree! his split is almost as nasty as Papelbon's is just gotta get Papelbon to throw the damn thing more...

[mzab24]

Yankees Sign AJ Burnett to go along with CC Sabathia for 5 years at $82.5 million

All I can say to that is fuuuuuuuuuck

[bigdan1110]

Originally Posted by mzab24

Yankees Sign AJ Burnett to go along with CC Sabathia for 5 years at $82.5 million

All I can say to that is fuuuuuuuuuck

Burnett is sooooooooooooooooo not worth it...

[nat2928]

i think one of my first posts on here i said something about the yankees buying championships, and i about got my head chewed off, now what do you say?

[donsjons]

Originally Posted by nat2928

i think one of my first posts on here i said something about the yankees buying championships, and i about got my head chewed off, now what do you say?

The obvious your wrong

People fail to realize we dumped around $80 million in salaries this offseason prior to our little spending spree. Even with our big 3 signings our payroll is still projected to be LESS in 2009 than 2008.

[nat2928]

you still go out buy the three best free agents out there, you outbid everyone, yet you are saying you are not trying to buy a championship instead of building threw your farm teams! i mean, ok, you guys got the money to spend because of the market and the revenue you bring in off of merchandise and everything that was sold from yankee stadium.